C enk Uygur is the co-host of The Young Turks, a co-founder of Justice Democrats, and the author of the book Justice Is Coming: How Progressives Are Going to Take Over the Country and America Is Going to Love It. Uygur has long warned that Democrats were making a serious mistake by supporting Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. He joins today to explain how so many people could have supported something so obviously disastrous, why even progressive politicians like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are standing behind the president, and why he is confident Biden won’t still be the Democratic candidate come November. The interview has been condensed and lightly edited for grammar and clarity. 

Nathan J. Robinson  

I was looking back through some headlines from about nine months ago. You had an appearance on The David Pakman Show called "Cenk Uygur CONFRONTS ME: Biden CAN'T WIN!!!" Three exclamation points, all capitals. Then a Newsweek headline from September 22, 2023: "Mr. President: You're going to lose to Trump. We are begging you to step down." That's under your byline. You said it's "unrecoverable." That you're telling yourself "sweet little lies" if you think that Joe Biden can win again. Another: "Cenk Uygur of the Young Turks says Trump will win if Biden doesn't step down." You even ran for president against him, and when asked why you were running for president, you said that Biden's re-election bid was "intensely selfish," warning that it made a Trump victory likelier. You said "I'm going to do whatever I can to help him decide this is not the right path."  If he doesn't retire now he loses, you said, and "he's the villain of the story." 

My question for you is: do you stand by these assessments?

Cenk Uygur  

I most certainly do. So here's what we tell people all the time. We do a lot of predictions on [The Young Turks]. People find it unusual, and it is. The reason we do it is because we want the audience to understand politics for themselves, so that they can see that there are actually patterns here, and you can actually tell what's going to happen. That's why we're not Monday morning quarterbacking. That's really easy. To give criticism afterwards, to be destructive. Instead, we're constructive. So we were positive over nine months ago that Joe Biden was going to lose. Unfortunately, it turns out we were right. And, yeah, that does happen a lot, and now a lot of people online are beginning to notice that these guys do get it right a significant percentage of the time.

That's because it's not that hard. So if you're not in a bubble, and you're not massively biased, you would have noticed—like seven out of 10 Americans—that there's something wrong with Joe Biden, that he's too old. It was not rocket science. It's just that these bubbles are nearly impenetrable. And bubbles turn into cults. And so, unfortunately, the main folks we're battling at this point, and I love them, and I don't want to battle them, but it's "Blue MAGA," who believe the bubble that MSNBC built, that Joe Biden is a world-beater—which is insanity. 

Robinson  

If people haven't heard that term "Blue MAGA," why do you use that?

Uygur  

It's to show that “Hey guys, I love you, but you've got to snap out of it.” You remember how the Trump supporters are MAGA, and they're in a cult, and they believe things that are empirically untrue, like Donald Trump winning the 2020 election. Well, you guys are believing something that's empirically untrue. No incumbent at a federal level, not just for president, has ever won re-election when [they have an approval rating] in the 30s in an election year. 

So if you think Joe Biden's going to win, there's almost no chance of that. He would have to pull off the greatest political comeback in American history. If you think that 72 to 80 percent of Americans thinking that his brain is not functioning is not going to cost us the election, you're massively kidding yourself. You're in a mini-cult. But you're not like Trump's MAGA. They're never going to get out of that cult. I believe that Blue MAGA can snap out of the hypnosis. That's what I'm trying to do, as a friend and an ally. Get out of that cult so we can win this race. We can have two dynamic, amazing candidates for president and vice president, and easily win. Please try to win against Trump.

Robinson  

Importantly, the things that you're saying there about the numbers that an incumbent can't win with, these are not post-debate. Everything that you were saying about the reasons that Joe Biden can't win, such as the numbers of Americans that thought he was too old, these Americans thought he was too old a year ago, two years ago. When the fake primary was run, they were saying this.

Uygur  

100 percent, the die was already cast. In one poll back then that I quoted in Newsweek at the time, he was already polling a 32 percent favorability. Good night, Irene. Look, even Nate Silver, who is the most down on him based on the numbers in the polling, is overly optimistic. Silver has Biden's chances of winning at 30 percent. No way. Look, I thought in 2016 Donald Trump was going to win. I predicted that on air after the DNC. You could see the patterns. But even on Election Day, where Hillary had a huge lead in the polls, there was still a 30 to 35 percent chance that Donald Trump could win. And the first thing that me and my co-host said on that day is: “30 to 35 percent happens all the time.” In fact, it happens about 35 percent of the time. 

In Biden's case, it is not 30. It's not even close to 30. It is very, very near zero. I mean, telling me that you think there's a 30 percent chance that Joe Biden, with half a brain, is going to pull off the greatest upset in American history, and the greatest comeback in American political history is just cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs. It's totally cult talk. It doesn't make any sense. It can't be backed up by any numbers. It's a total absurdity. At this point, he's losing New Jersey! If you're losing New Jersey, you have a 0 percent chance of winning. If you're the Democratic candidate, please snap out of it. 

I'm doing this with love. It's almost an intervention to the Democratic Party. Stop listening to Democratic leadership. They don't know anything! How many times do they have to lead you astray before you go “Oh right, Hillary didn't win, and it wasn't guaranteed.” And Joe Biden doesn't have a brain and is now getting clobbered. Destroyed! These are the so-called wise men of the party. They're, generally speaking, at best, really average bureaucrats.

Robinson  

To be precise, I believe the existing reports are that Joe Biden has at least a percentage of a brain between the hours of 10am and 4pm and then it kind of switches off. Then after 8pm, there's nothing. 

Uygur  

No, you're totally right. There was a 10-4 story where they're like, “well, for six hours a day, he's fully functional.” And then Biden himself told the Democratic governors, “Well, after eight o'clock, I've learned I can't do any events.” But, brother, if you're shutting down at 8:15 at night... this is totally untenable. The problem with Blue MAGA is that once you insult Biden, like I am, they think, "Oh, that's it, you're the enemy. You love Trump." Because they've been taught black and white. No, the way to beat Donald Trump is to pick an Andy Beshear, a Gretchen Whitmer, a Wes Moore, some dynamic, great Democratic governor. They don't have to be perfect. They just have to have the bare minimum to be able to beat Donald Trump. So please try to beat Trump! That's what I'm trying to get into their heads. Right now, we're unilaterally surrendering.

Robinson  

By the way, the Wall Street Journal just reported more evidence: during a fundraiser at the Four Seasons in New York in June 2023, Biden “couldn't recall the word for veteran.” “According to attendees who bought a ticket, the president asked the group to help him find the word, saying he wanted to refer to a person who'd served in the Army or Navy."

Uygur  

So look, there's two things that I want to point out here, and I'm not unique in pointing this out. Even Jake Tapper pointed it out. So Biden goes to do interviews after the disastrous debate. Two of them. They fed the interviewers the questions. That's all acknowledged now. So he knows exactly what's coming, and it's a radio interview, so he has notes in front of him that his staffers prepared. If they didn't, they're beyond political malpractice.

Robinson  

Just read the answer to the question that we have fed to the journalist! 

Uygur  

Please read the freaking answer! That's the bare minimum. This is what we're trying to prove: that your brain works. And he was an absolute mess. He said he was the first Black woman to serve with a Black president. And then the Stephanopoulos interview, again, total mess. He says, "I'm the goodest candidate." No brother, you are not the goodest candidate if you use words like goodest! And it's not a one-time thing. You forget the word veteran, it happens. It's not that big a deal, right? But, guys, it's an avalanche of absurdities. And they keep telling you the emperor has clothes on. I'm not your enemy, I'm your friend, trying to tell you, “No, he doesn't. I can see his crotch right now. He has no clothes. I can see his ass. You're imagining the clothes.”

Robinson  

We should note that the White House has said, for the record, that they do not believe Joe Biden said he’d done the “goodest” job. Their position is that he said, I have done the “good as” job, which also doesn't make any sense. They forced ABC to correct the transcript with another thing that didn't make sense.

Uygur  

They keep replacing things in the transcript. Are they gonna replace that he said a couple of weeks ago that his uncle was eaten by cannibals? Imagine if Trump or RFK Jr. had said "my uncle was eaten by cannibals." What kind of absolute raving lunatic claims that their uncle was eaten by cannibals when he clearly wasn't? Everyone’s going to find out! Well, that's the state of Biden’s mind, whether we like it or not. 

Robinson

Look, Cenk, you have never struck me as a person who needs a confidence boost, so I don't want to tell you just how right you were, and how you called it and everyone else didn't. Because I think, as you said earlier, the interesting thing is not that you got it right. The interesting thing is the level of denial that there was. Because you are not a prophet. Your predictions do not come because you have some unique special insight into politics.

And I think it’s in part because we’re in independent media. Current Affairs was writing articles saying, “Biden's not going to win.” You with The Young Turks were saying, “Biden's not going to win.” With the debate, the consensus crumbled. But prior to the debate, it was crazy. When you and I were saying it, it was really weird that people didn't have a response. They just said “You're helping Trump.”

Uygur  

You said “it's not like you need a confidence boost,” and I get it. I certainly seem confident. I am confident. But, Nathan, it's also true that whenever I say things that are obvious to a lot of people, they’re not obvious to a ton of other people. What I get back most times is: You’re crazy. You’re wrong. Yeah, this crazy guy thinks Biden’s too old. I keep thinking, “Are you serious?” 

Some things are harder to predict. I predicted Bernie Sanders would give Hillary Clinton a real run for her money back in 2013, at least two years before anybody thought he was ever going to get past 3 percent. So that requires a knowledge of the grassroots and the base, etc. That's not at all obvious, but most of the things that I say are so easy. So, for example, we try to predict legislation on the show. We get that right, I'm not joking or exaggerating, approximately 100 percent. And the reason for that is that's even easier: just follow the money. Whoever has more money wins every time. Literally every time. 

Okay, so it doesn't take a rocket scientist, guys. We teach our audience to do it. Now our audience is sending in correct predictions. They're like, “Oh, yeah, I see it now, this leads to that.” So, Nathan, you did a great job not because you saw something that was difficult to spot. At that point, nearly seven out of 10 Americans had already spotted it, right? It's just that you deserve credit for breaking through your own bubble and being courageous enough to say the truth when almost everyone in power was saying the opposite.

Robinson  

It requires a certain arrogance. Because you have to be able to remain confident in what you're saying. There are the psychological experiments with everyone around you saying that the line is shorter when it's longer. And a lot of people will go along with it, because you just don't have the confidence in yourself. So you think, “I must be missing something. The crowd must be right.” I thought Trump was going to win in 2016. But all that time, it was really hard. Because people are telling you that you are nuts, and also that you're causing damage and you need to stop.

Uygur  

That's the amazing thing about gaslighting. They can take any position and turn it into “No, you're crazy for thinking two plus two equals four. Get a load of this, guys! He thinks it equals four. What a crazy idiot. Radical! Don't trust him.” Look, we argued in the primary, which is exactly what the point of a primary is, that we should pick the stronger candidate against Trump. In 2016, every poll showed that Bernie Sanders polled better than Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump on Election Day. It was a 12 point difference. Bernie would have beat him by 12. They say, “Oh, they would have run the general election campaign against him and they would have knocked that down.” Yeah, they might have knocked it down from 12 to a six-point lead. He still would have won.

But it doesn't matter, because in the primaries, we already saw every poll saying Bernie does better than Hillary. But everyone in mainstream media quite literally lied to their audience. They came out and said, “No, Hillary is the one that could beat Trump and our number one concern with Bernie Sanders is that he can't beat Trump.” Even though the polling showed the exact opposite. So all I did was quote numbers. Same thing that happened with Biden. People say, “Oh, you're a radical for believing in numbers.” Well, okay, that's how gaslighting works. 

Robinson  

Help me understand a kind of paradox here. Because, you might think that when you're saying “Joe Biden can't beat Trump,” you are giving advice to Democrats that it is in their own self-interest to take. And the kind of mystery, which I still don't quite understand, is why they often don't even seem like they want to win. Why that little ideological bubble can drive you towards things that are suicidal. What you're telling them is, “Look, forget all the issues, forget the ideology.” Forget the fact that you're a progressive and not a centrist. I could be an amoral strategic advisor saying “Joe Biden is going to go down.” Why would people stick with that? What is the psychology of sticking with something that is going to hurt the whole party?

Uygur  

Yeah, there's a clear answer to that one too, because it depends on what you mean by “they” and what you mean by “win.” Let's take it one by one in the categories. First of all, when you talk about the DNC and Joe Biden's campaign, the top leadership in both of those places, their jobs 100 percent depend not on the Democrats winning, but on Joe Biden being the candidate. Joe Biden picked the leadership of the DNC. Joe Biden picked this campaign. The minute Joe Biden's not the candidate, all those people are fired. There will be new Democrats that take their positions. For those people, winning is different than for you and I. For them, winning is keeping their job, and as long as Joe Biden's the candidate, they keep their job, their power, their status, etc., which is super important to them in Washington. 

So they have a self-interest to betray you, because even if they thought Joe Biden is the weakest possible candidate, it's in their self-interest to lie to you. By the way, they're not like weirdo, evil people. The first step that they do is lie to themselves. They get themselves to believe, “Yeah, a guy [polling] in the 30s can win. Yeah, Joe Biden's the most miraculous politician of all time.” And they get themselves to believe total ridiculous fantasies. Oh, eight out of 10 Americans think his brain is not functioning well enough to serve. That's no big deal, they tell themselves. Then they tell you. So they are never going to tell you the truth. They're just going to tell you what's in their best interest. 

Then you have mainstream media. Another word for them is corporate media. Corporate media only cares about power. I'll give you an interesting example. Ana Kasparian and I were on CNN quite often when Bernie was leading in 2020. So when he had won those first three primary states, and cable news thought he was going to have power. They would invite us on all the time. The minute Bernie lost the primaries, we never got invited back on. Because all they care about is power. So they are going to support the powerful, no matter who it is. So until the debate, they supported Joe Biden because he still had the power. After the debate, this is all subconscious, but what they realize is, “all right, this guy's done for.” We all have eyes, and by the way, we're getting humiliated because we stood up for this guy. We pretended that anyone who was saying that he has a problem was crazy and radical. That's super uncomfortable, because we're supposed to be in news, and it kind of exposed us as being in marketing and propaganda. So let's switch right away, so that we still look like we're in news and we're going to serve whoever the new power is, because this guy isn't going to make it. So that's the “they” and that's their “win.”

Finally, you get to the Democratic voters. For us, the win is actually winning the election and beating Donald Trump and having a Democratic president. Now, even half of us are split, and that's the Blue MAGA that I refer to, because they've been influenced so heavily by cable news and mainstream media. Every time when I talk to Blue MAGA, they will mention that they watch Morning Joe or The View or some other. It's all mainstream media crap and that's why I don't blame them. If I was them, I might think the same thing that they think. Because they've never actually been exposed to the truth, because the media they watch is so corrupt, serves power so thoroughly that they never would have heard. They had no idea that Joe Biden had almost no chance of winning.

Before the debate, almost all my friends who mainly watch mainstream media said after the debate, “Wow, I'm now worried that Biden might not win.” And that's what the great majority, I think, of Democratic voters thought. No, brothers and sisters, he had no chance before the debate. After the debate, it's just getting into like some sort of weirdo S&M ritual. This is crazy. You have to pull him. The American people don’t think that his brain works! That is not complicated.

Robinson  

We should note that there has really been a concerted fraud on the part of the people around Biden. They have carefully orchestrated his public appearances. At the debate, they couldn’t help but show him to the public for 90 minutes. But they’ve been really trying not to let the American people understand the true state of Biden's mind. 

Uygur  

His handlers have been shielding him. Look, here’s another one that's definitive, when a lot of smart people who are still either establishment or establishment-adjacent pulled out, Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, Axelrod, Carville. When he didn’t do the Super Bowl interview. For the professionals, that's when you knew. Because the Super Bowl interview is a layup. It goes to tens of millions of people. It goes to a lot of non-political people, independents. It's a softball interview that's manna from heaven for a politician. Turning down the Super Bowl interview is enormous political malpractice, and the Biden team is way too experienced to do that kind of malpractice for no reason. 

So there was a reason. The reason was, he can't even do the simplest of interviews, and their strategy was to hide him in a basement until the election is over. First of all, that means you're going to lose. You can't hide your candidate and win. It's not possible. But then think about also—I mean, this part is uncomfortable, but you have to be honest about it. They know he can’t finish those four years. They know he's going to be in Feinstein territory pretty soon. And so they’re saying: "Who cares? We're going to run the country anyway.” It's going to be the First Lady, it's going to be the chief of staff. We're running the country as it is now. And they have the biggest incentive to lie to you.

Robinson  

It's better for them if there is no president!

Uygur  

You know what happens to Jill Biden and Hunter Biden the minute Biden steps down? Obscurity. They're gone forever. They lose all power forever and ever and ever. And if we're being honest about it, the First Lady does not want to lose power. She thinks, “Yeah, Joe's not great, but I'm in good shape. We are running the country fine.” 

It's not some sort of conspiracy. Literally every major media outlet—the New York Times, Axios, Politico, etc.—have all reported that the one person that Joe Biden listens to is the First Lady. She has an enormous percentage of the decision-making powers. So the First Lady is basically being super selfish and saying, “I kind of want to continue being a shadow president, and so I'm going to humiliate my husband and put him out there with his mouth agape.” The whole country's gasping, "No, no, no, no." And Jill Biden's like, “It's fine. You answered the questions, Joe! It's fine. We are still the president.” Come on. It's obvious.

Robinson

We should add that actually the press reports that he does listen to Hunter Biden, too—which is, if anything, much more concerning. 

Uygur  

Again, if you're Blue MAGA, you're going to hate all this talk. You're going to say “Hunter Biden is a sweet, innocent kid, and they're just picking on him and Jill Biden is so classy, and we love her.” And “I can't believe you're saying mean things about the First Lady. Don't you know the first rule of Democrats is lose with civility?” No! I do not want to lose to Trump. And Jill Biden is in our way, because she's saying, “I don't care if we lose to Trump, my power is more important.” That's what she's saying.

Another thing about the First Lady and how cruel she's being: I've got family members who have Alzheimer's. If you told me, even at the very beginning of it, “We're going to put your loved one out there,” and then the whole country's going to either make fun of them or just be humiliated on their behalf, I would punch you in the face. There's no way in the world I would let my loved one go out there on a debate stage like that. She's shoving him onto that debate stage and at the end going, “You did good, Joe, you answered all the questions.”

One last thing: in Washington culture, they value being polite to the powerful so much more than they value the truth. That's why when I say things that are patently true about Joe or Jill Biden, they're so aghast. They're like, I don't care if that's true. You're not allowed to say impolite things. They're powerful. We're supposed to worship them. So that mindset is a cancer.

Robinson  

On what you're saying about putting your relative out there: A lot of people's reactions to the debate that I heard was something like “I feel cruel watching it. This feels wrong to watch. This is painful. This feels like participating in elder abuse.” That's a reaction that was quite common. 

Now, you've helped us understand a little bit about the psychology of voters, of the people around Biden, and of the media. There's one more group that I want to ask you to help us understand, which is Democratic legislators. Because right now there's kind of an interesting thing going on where a lot of them, even people like AOC, are coming out and saying, “Biden's the nominee. We're riding with, Biden.” AOC said the matter is settled. But then you hear others going, "I'm going to let the President make his decision." And then some percentage of the Democrats have said that he should step down. Now, George Clooney just published in the New York Times today an op-ed saying that every senator and Congress member and governor that he has spoken with in private says Biden can’t win. And yet a lot of them seem to be resigned to him. What is going on with Democrats in Congress? 

Uygur  

This one is also clear. The robots are malfunctioning. The first thing you have to understand about politicians is that they're largely servants. They don't actually hold any power. I'll tell a story that I put in my book Justice is Coming. So Ted Cruz got $13 million from the Mercers, who were Wall Street titans during the 2016 primary. He then does not endorse Donald Trump at the convention, famously because he called Cruz's wife ugly and his dad an assassin and all this lunatic stuff. All this makes sense.

So why did Ted Cruz turn around immediately and then start phone banking for Donald Trump and becoming his top groveler? Because that night, after the speech, he went up to the Mercer suite at the convention, and they slammed a door in his face and said, “No more money for you, dog.” Okay, I added the "dog." And so Cruz was like, “Oh, I'm so sorry. He can call my wife ugly anytime. Uh, I've always had my questions about my dad. Maybe he is a murderer.” So he flipped on a dime because Ted Cruz himself doesn't actually have any power. He's just an actor that the donors hired to pretend to have power. But his power is based on the donor money.

But that unfortunately is true for about 90 percent of our politicians. They’re controlled almost completely by the donor class. And they're in that groupthink bubble. So they genuinely think these things that help their donors. Or they get themselves to believe it. Some are totally callous and are not genuine at all. But I would say probably half of them are like, “oh, I think it does help innovation that we have to pay the drug companies any price.” They say “I think in a free market, you're not allowed to negotiate prices.” What? That doesn't make any sense at all! But they get themselves to believe it. 

So why is the robot malfunctioning now? Because they're like [Cenk does a robot voice] “NEED. TO. WIN.” If Republicans run these ads connecting me to Biden, I will definitely lose. So they don't want to lose their power. So that's easy so far. But then the other coding comes in: “MUST. SERVE. LEADERSHIP.” Remember, always be a coward. Must do whatever leadership says. Leadership says I should jump off a cliff; not supposed to jump off a cliff. So they're just malfunctioning. They don't know what to do, because they're mainly servants, so they're looking around for orders. They're like, “Whose order do I take?” 

So these guys are not profiles of courage. They're never going to take bold action. It's not who they are. Look, you want to go more meta? The donors pay both the Republicans and the Democrats. Some of them are donors that are more socially liberal, some are donors that are more conservative. But all the donors agree they are "economically conservative." They want tax cuts for the rich and for corporations, and they want deregulation. So these donors, that's part of why they think. “Who cares if Joe Biden's brain isn't working?” It was always optional. Look at what we did with Feinstein. We just wheeled her around, same exact result. The donors are in charge anyway. 

Robinson  

The brain doesn't matter! Reagan showed that you could be president for years without one.

Uygur  

And Reagan was literally an actor. 

Robinson  

Yeah, you just need someone to read from the teleprompter.

Uygur  

There's the great line from the Michael Moore movie when the person whispers in Reagan’s ear during the stock market opening. Tells him what to say. Now, there's a report out that Jill Biden whispers in Biden's ear, and then Biden repeats the lines. So here we are again. 

But the people whispering in Jill Biden’s ear and that other guy’s ear are the donors. So since these politicians mainly wait for orders from their donors, and the donors are confused, now they’re like, Biden was our boy. He was a great return on investment. Whenever we gave that guy money, he would always deliver for business interests. So we love Biden. On the other hand, it looks like our little game has been exposed, and now this actor is compromised. So we’re thinking of going with a new actor. Meanwhile, the congressmen are just sitting there waiting for a donor to tell them what to do. They're frozen. They don't know what to do. And if any of them were actual leaders, they would lead. 

So look, I ran for Congress in 2020. And this is going to sound super arrogant, and that's why a lot of people are put off by me. But my job is to tell you the truth. If I had won, that dynamic in the House caucus would have been different. Not that I would have won the day. I'm not that arrogant that I think I could convince all these robots that they're wrong. No, but there would have been super hard questions asked of leadership and of Joe Biden. And they’re not going to be able to answer those questions, like “Who's the president after eight o'clock at night?”

Robinson  

So what’s going on with someone like AOC? She’s elected to be that person. She's elected independent of big donors and corporate pressure, supposedly. Is it just that they get her in a room and they go “you have to stick with the message”? Is there an explicit threat? Is there an implicit threat? What's going on? 

Uygur  

The threat is implicit and ubiquitous. They don't ever have to say. They kind of hint at it in the beginning. Then they execute it throughout, so that when you get to this point, the die is already cast. 

So what am I referring to? Is it money? No. Look, I formed Justice Democrats. I named Justice Democrats, but I was not the most pivotal person in AOC's win by a long shot. There were a lot of great people who, by the way, have not gotten the credit that they deserve. Saikat Chakrabarti, Zack Exley, Corbin Trent, etc. They did a miraculous job of getting her elected. But the idea here was, “Hey, go in and fight the establishment.” You're not going to be able to convince them. You're not going to win an intellectual debate, and then have them go, “All right, let's throw away a billion dollars in donor money and listen to what AOC has to say.” You have to strategically pick fights in the press and gain leverage as you go. 

In the beginning, it worked great. She did the confrontation at Nancy Pelosi's office. Worked brilliantly. Put the Sunrise Movement on the map. Put Justice Democrats on the map. Got the Green New Deal on the map. I mean, Jesus, it was a home run. And in the beginning, Pelosi offered her money. I know that as well. “Oh, we'll help you with your re-elections now that you're one of us. Wink, wink.” And AOC did not fall for that. She was true. So give her a lot of credit for that.[...] 

But they just wound up going, “Oh, yeah, you know what? We'll get incremental change.” And Joe Biden promised us a $15 minimum wage. Oh, he didn't do it. Okay, well, we'll keep trusting him. He promises paid family leave, public option. I can go on. Dozens of policies. Oh, he didn't do it. He didn't do it. He didn't do it. He didn't do voting rights for African Americans. Didn't do it, didn't do it. But let's go with him. And their strategy was literally called, quote, “trust Biden.”

Robinson  

The guy who has lied about everything that he's ever done. 

Uygur  

Nathan, it's not just that. When you're doing negotiations and you're trying to get something in a bill, just saying to the guy that you're negotiating with, “I trust you, you do whatever you want” is giving away all of your leverage. By definition. There is no other interpretation. Whereas Joe Manchin did not give away an inch of his leverage. He beat the hell out of that bill until there was only 15 percent or so left, and he did it by saying, “I'm going to vote no. I'm going to vote no. What are you going to do about it? I'm going to vote no.” And you know what Joe Biden did? He kissed his ass because Manchin was playing correct politics. 

Our people play obviously ridiculously incorrect politics. It's not just the culture, but the culture is so pervasive in Washington. If a new progressive gets elected, I have about a six-week window where I could still talk to them. After six weeks, they are Congressman XYZ, and they’ve already got the brain cancer of Washington culture: “I must obey, I must obey.” “Democratic leadership knows best.” “Do not cause any trouble.” “Do not be uncivil.” “My colleagues are so important and treasured.” Oh, my God, “We're all working together.” No, they're looking to eliminate you one by one. Look at what happened to Jamal Bowman. They're in the middle of doing it to Cori Bush. 

Robinson  

They'll destroy you. 

Uygur  

They're going to destroy you, you knuckleheads. 

The last thing that’s the most important is the media, if they step out of line. This is true. I get why they're concerned, and I get that they would have to withstand this damage in the beginning. Mainstream media will rip their heads off. So if AOC or Bernie had said at any point, anything like what Joe Manchin said, “I'm voting no unless a $15 minimum wage is in there,” the Jake Tappers of the world would have eviscerated him. They would have put him through a shredder. “Betraying Biden, betraying the Democratic Party.” “They're not going to get anything done, and it's going to be Bernie's fault and AOC's fault.” They would have all said it in unison. And you all know it, every person watching. It doesn't matter where you are on the political spectrum. You know they would have obliterated Bernie or AOC for saying that. So then you're thinking, “Cenk, why in the world would they do that then?” Because, brother, if you don't take on mainstream media, you're never going to get to the right results. You have to have that fight, and you have to get beyond that fight. 

Can you get beyond it? Of course, you do things like argue on your moral high ground. Say, “Hey, you know what? Paid family leave is polling at 84 percent in favor, and unless Joe Biden puts it in the bill, we're all voting no.” What are they going to do? They're going to say, “I can't believe that AOC is arguing for paid family leave.” Well, even though they're criticizing, what the audience is going to hear is, “Oh, AOC and Bernie are for paid family leave, and I love paid family leave.” “Oh, they're for higher wages. I love higher wages.” You have to be ready for that fight and know how to win that fight, but if you do unilateral surrender, you have no chance of winning that fight. And that's where we are today. 

Robinson  

A lot of the dynamics that you've described are documented pretty well in Ryan Grim's book on the Squad. He actually documents the pressures that were put on. And, in fact, a couple of people you cite as being pivotal in AOC’s victory were squeezed out—according to his reporting—of the office for essentially being too confrontational. The confrontational approach was considered. The conclusion was “That's going to burn it down, that's not going to do anything. We need to be more pragmatic.”

Uygur  

Ryan’s reporting is totally accurate. I was there. I know exactly what happened. And the minute that AOC pushed out Saikat Chakrabarti and Corbin Trent, the two people who were most pivotal in getting her elected, is the minute that the dream of Justice Democrats began to evaporate. Because that meant she's not going to do the plan. She's just going to go along to get along, and she's going to go to the Met Gala, and she's going to be a celebrity. 

And it worked for her. Because since she did not have a confrontation with mainstream media, the mainstream media helped to build her up as some sort of superstar. Because at that point she was already neutered, and they knew that she would not cause any damage or any trouble. 

So that's the deal she made. Even though she doesn't know she made that deal.

Robinson

I want to ask you about what happens next. You said you don't hesitate to make predictions. Based on where things are at now, is the pressure on Biden going to succeed? Every day there's a different report. The dam is holding. The dam is breaking. Is Biden going to be the ultimate nominee? Is there any chance of Democrats winning even if Biden is replaced as the nominee? And what kind of catastrophe do we face going forward, because no one paid attention to your Newsweek column in 2023?

Uygur  

There's three main questions left, and I only have answers for two of them. So the thing with quote, unquote “predictions” is you need the information first. If you don't have enough information... this isn't magic. We're not Nostradamus. There is no mythical creature whispering in our ear. It's just data, context, information. 

So first one: is Joe Biden going to be the candidate? Joe Biden will not be the candidate. I've guaranteed it. So that's as positive as I can be. And that's me putting myself out there, and you could hold me accountable for this. 

Okay, so there's two main reasons why. Number one, the donor class is leaving. You mentioned George Clooney just today. Even Katzenberg’s on wobbly legs, and he's the number one most supportive donor of Joe Biden. I don't know any inside information. I'm just telling you what I see in mainstream media reporting about these donors. Almost half the donors are already gone. The other half are on super wobbly legs. We just talked about Ted Cruz. Joe Biden doesn’t have a base. He doesn’t have a single person that would say, for example, “if Joe Biden's not the Democratic nominee, then I'm not voting for the Democrat.” Donald Trump has millions and millions of people who would say that. Joe Biden doesn't have one.

Robinson  

You're right. Not a single person.

Uygur  

Well, maybe Jill Biden. But rather than that, if you got a new Democratic nominee, all of Blue MAGA, all of Biden's supporters, are going to vote for the new Democrat now.

Robinson  

You don't lose one person.

Uygur  

That's right. So since he doesn't have a base, Joe Biden’s base of power is the donor money. That’s why he is in the position that he's in now. He's been able to raise more money than almost any politician in U.S. history. But without that power base, he has no power at all. So now he's getting pushed around. That's why he's saying, “Oh, the elites are against me.” Oh, brother, you loved the elites when they handed you the presidency. Right now, all of a sudden you lost the elites, and you're worried and calling out the elites. Because you have no power base left anymore. 

Uygur  

But even more importantly, the Republicans already ran one ad. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania has got a tough Senate race, and they put an ad out there saying, “When did Bob Casey know about Joe Biden's condition? How long has he been lying to protect Joe Biden? Can you trust Bob Casey?” And they've got Bob Casey hugging Joe Biden. They've got Bob Casey in a Biden hat. So there goes Bob Casey. There goes the Senate. I mean, we were never going to win West Virginia to begin with, but now Pennsylvania is in danger. Sherrod Brown in Ohio is in massive danger. All of these Senate races are in danger. Congress is gone. 

Those ads are going to obliterate the Democrats. They cannot withstand those ads. If you lose two to three points, let alone five points, which is at a minimum, what I think they'll lose, based on those ads alone, that means you lose all the swing districts. You lose all the purple states. It's a bloodbath, and at some point all those congresspeople who are going to lose are going to go, “Alright, the computer isn’t fixed enough to know I'm one step away from the cliff. I have to turn around.” Otherwise, it doesn't matter how much I please the donors or anyone else or leadership, I'm not going to exist. So there's going to be a massive rebellion. The only question is whether it's now, where we can pick a new candidate and the damage is contained, or if they go all the way through the convention. Republicans are pulling those ads because they want Biden in the race. They're like, “just save it for two months for when it's too late.” So when they unload a tsunami of ads against the congressional candidates, then Biden’s gonna have to step down from the campaign and the presidency. Then they're gonna have to anoint Kamala Harris, because there is no other path. And that's an epic disaster. At that point it might be unrecoverable. 

So they're going to have to do it. Otherwise, they're going to get obliterated. So that's set in stone. Biden's gone. The only question is, when and with how much damage. Can a non-Kamala candidate win? Definitely! That question is also settled. Give me any generic Democrat. You know me, I’m a progressive. I’m an economic populist. These guys are not. But it's not about ideology here at this point. It’s just about winning so we can get to have a real election in 2028.

So in order to win, who do you have? You give me governor Andy Beshear, who’s won two governor’s races in Kentucky. I’ll give you the election. Give me Wes Moore from Maryland. Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania. Gretchen Whitmer. All these people can beat Trump with a stick. The reason why Biden people don't realize that Biden is toast is because Trump is so unpopular. And he's masking the decay of Joe Biden with his own decay. Now, give me a non-decaying candidate, and let's end this dude. 

Okay, so that I'm sure of, too. I'm not saying that it's a guaranteed win. But I'm saying that our chance of beating Trump with two new candidates, president and vice president, is sky high. It's really high. There's no reason we shouldn’t do it.

Now the part I don't know. When Biden steps down, especially if it’s before the convention—are they going to anoint Kamala Harris and tell everybody to shut up, and that they're racist and sexist if they object to Kamala Harris? There's a good chance of that. Or are they going to go to an open convention? Because they're also worried about Kamala Harris. There’s also a good chance of that. I don’t know which way that one’s going to go. I wouldn’t say it's 50-50, I think Kamala still has the lead, because Democratic leadership almost always does the wrong thing. They almost always anoint, and they almost always use false charges of racism and sexism to get their way. So it's kind of a layup for their normal strategies, and they like to lose. 

Robinson  

Is Kamala Harris as much of a disaster as she is infamous for being?

Uygur  

I don't know her personally. All I know is that when I talk to people high up in Democratic politics, when I get to Kamala Harris, no one defends her, no one who’s ever interacted with her at that level. If I'm attacking Biden, even in a personal, private conversation, not even attacking, just criticizing, they’re animated. They're like, “No way. Joe Biden's great. You're crazy. He's the only one that could beat Trump” and blah, blah, blah, blah. And I go, Kamala Harris. And they're like, "Yeah. Whatever." 

So our only hope is they know something we don't know to a point that it panics them enough where they go “Why don't we do a convention and see what happens?” The number one problem with the open convention—there's no problems in practicality, by definition, it would give you the toughest, strongest candidate. You’d be nuts not to do it if you're a Democratic voter. And it gives you the appearance of democracy, whatever is left of it. And so that helps strengthen your case against Trump And it gets you about $2 billion in free media coverage for your convention. So it's a no brainer. 

The reason is, the donors are afraid of letting go of the reins. And so at an open convention, the donors don't necessarily get to pick the candidate, and that's making them super nervous. They're like, “Okay, well, we were going to go with Joe, because he's a great return on investment, and who cares? Who’s in charge anyway, right? We're in charge.” And then they're like, “Kamala Harris, we don't want to make the same mistake we did with Biden. But on the other hand, she follows orders, right? A bad candidate, unstable, but follows orders. Or an open convention where we would pick among corporate Democrats, but I don't control it 100 percent.” So that's why the donors are like, “oh, I don't want to let go.” And that’s the number one reason why we might not have an open convention. 

Robinson  

I want to end by returning to a point made earlier that I think is just critical here. As I said, you and I have been saying this for years, all the stuff that was not being said. We were able to do that in part because we have independence. You are not on MSNBC anymore. We have had that independence because we have managed to build institutions. In your case a large independent progressive media institution, in mine a little tiny magazine. But that independence, being beholden only to your viewers or subscribers, is critical. So maybe you could explain why it’s so important for you to have the particular platform that you do.

Uygur  

I was an anchor on MSNBC about a dozen years ago, and I got a speech from the head of MSNBC at the time that basically told me “Stop criticizing Democrats.” They would always say, “remember who the home team is.” And I refused to do it. And so then they offered to double my salary. I turned down over a million dollars in that deal. And at that point, other than MSNBC money, I was dead broke. I was a struggling radio talk show host for so long. And then we were the first YouTube [news] show, first YouTube partner. But back then, remember, we didn't make any money from that. We were just doing cats playing piano videos, right? 

So turning down that amount of money was back-breaking. But I did it because I thought “You just cannot tell the truth here.” What's the point? Am I going to have a career where I'm just another one of these talking heads, and you get the money and the status, etc, but you’re controlled, and you’re only allowed to say certain things? And I thought, “No, I'm going back to Young Turks, and we're going to do it right, no matter how long and no matter how hard.” 

The part of it that worked, Nathan, is that we tell the audience, we’re not the Young Turks. You’re the Young Turks. And that's true. Our strength comes from our membership, the people who are paying members of TYT. So when we are battered by mainstream media or politicians or anything else, it doesn't really matter, because they can't take us off the air.

Since our members are our rock, they're our boss, they tell me to tell the truth. I tell the truth. That's the whole point of the Young Turks. And so as long as we have our members, they can't ever knock us out, and they can't get rid of us, they can't cancel us. So when people go to tyt.com/join to become a member, what they're saying is, I want to finance five bucks at a time, at least one outlet [that will tell the truth.] 

Same thing with the people that support you. They're saying, “I want you to say the things that you’re saying, I want your voice to be stronger. And I don't want just corporate media. I want something different. I want this.” I think that's super powerful as a force in media. And then you think it's going to change the media landscape. And I hope that others will do as you and I are doing, which is prioritizing and serving the audience instead of either a corporation that’s your advertiser or a politician you want access to, or anything that is part of the power structure.